The facts

“Fifteen minutes” to downtown? We did the math.

The sponsors say the O’Hare Flyer would run from Terminal 2 to the Old Post Office in fifteen minutes. Two STOP volunteers, a planning consultant and a retired chemical engineer, took the time to collect the data. They timed what the whole trip would take, door to door, and compared it hour by hour with a rideshare straight from the terminal. Here is what they found.

0hours of the day in which the trip to a downtown hotel could take fifteen minutes

42 minshortest door-to-door trip via the Flyer in three days of hourly timing

14 of 19hours in which a rideshare from Terminal 5 beat the Flyer route

$40Flyer fare assumed, per person; a second rider doubles it

What “fifteen minutes” leaves out

Fifteen minutes is the train ride. A traveler’s trip starts at the arrival gate and ends at a hotel door, and the Flyer station would be at the Old Post Office, at the west edge of downtown. Nearly every destination needs a second ride. Here is the trip from a Terminal 2 arrival, using the sponsors’ own numbers for the train:

The rideshare leg is the three-day average to the Drake; it ran from about 10 to 40 minutes depending on the hour.

Walk from the Terminal 2 arrival area to the Flyer platform5 min
Wait for the next train, with trains every 15 minutes7½ min average
Ride to the Old Post Office, as the sponsors describe it15 min
A stop in Forest Park, which the sponsors have discussed5 min
Walk out of the station to the rideshare pickup2 min
Wait for a rideshare, then ride to the hotelmeasured hourly
Total34½ min + Uber ride to hotel

From Terminal 5, add the walk and tram ride to Terminal 2: about 15 minutes instead of a 5-minute walk, so 10 minutes more.

Hour by hour

The chart shows the trip from a Terminal 2 arrival to the Drake Hotel, averaged over the three days. The solid line is the Flyer route: the steps above, plus the measured rideshare from the Old Post Office. The dashed line is a rideshare straight from the terminal to the same hotel, including the wait for the car. Shaded hours are the ones in which the Flyer route came out faster.

Via the Flyer, then rideshareRideshare direct from the terminalFlyer route faster

Minutes, door to door. Three-day averages of readings taken every hour from 4 a.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 2, Sunday, Oct. 4 and Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026.

What the chart shows

From Terminal 2, the Flyer route is faster during the afternoon rush, roughly 1 to 8 p.m., when a car from O’Hare sits in the same traffic the train would skip. The rest of the day the rideshare is faster or the two are about even, because the Flyer rider still needs a car for the last leg and that car sits in downtown traffic too. The same pattern held for the Congress Plaza Hotel. From Terminal 5, the international terminal, the rideshare is faster in 14 of the 19 hours.

On individual days the swings are bigger than the averages. A direct rideshare from Terminal 2 ran as short as 27 minutes and as long as 107 (Wednesday, 4 p.m., to the Congress Plaza). The Flyer route ranged from 42 to 69 minutes because most of it is fixed.

Trip	Via the Flyer	Rideshare direct	Rideshare faster
Terminal 2 → The Drake	57 min	58 min	10 of 19
Terminal 2 → Congress Plaza	49 min	53 min	8 of 19
Terminal 5 → The Drake	64 min	56 min	14 of 19
Terminal 5 → Congress Plaza	57 min	51 min	14 of 19

Three-day average, door to door, including waits.

What it would cost

The Flyer fare is unknown; the analysis assumes $40 a person, in line with what a taxi or rideshare costs with airport surcharges. The rideshare prices are what the Uber app quoted at each hour, including surge pricing and airport fees, with a tip.

The chart shows two people traveling together from Terminal 2 to the Drake. On the Flyer they pay two fares and then share one car from the Old Post Office. In a rideshare from the terminal they share one car the whole way, and the price is the same for one passenger or two.

Via the Flyer, two fares, then one rideshareOne rideshare direct from the terminalFlyer route cheaper

Dollars for two travelers, Terminal 2 to the Drake, three-day averages by hour. Flyer total is two $40 fares plus the shared rideshare from the Old Post Office, with tip. Rideshare total includes airport fees, surge pricing and tip.

Averages over the three days. The Flyer total is two $40 fares plus one shared rideshare from the Old Post Office, with tip.

Hotel	Via the Flyer, 1 rider	Via the Flyer, 2 riders	Rideshare from Terminal 2, 1 or 2 riders	Rideshare from Terminal 5, 1 or 2 riders
The Drake	$71	$111	$78	$62
Congress Plaza	$61	$101	$74	$59

Three-day averages. Flyer totals include the $40 fare plus the rideshare from the Old Post Office to the hotel, with tip.

For one person arriving at Terminal 2, the Flyer route averaged less than a direct rideshare. For two people it averaged more at almost every hour of every day, because the train charges by the seat and the car does not. From Terminal 5, where the direct rideshare is cheaper to begin with, one rider comes out about even.

How the numbers were gathered

The Flyer does not exist, so its side of the trip is a model built from the sponsors’ statements and standard walking times. The rideshare side is measured. On each of the three days, at the top of every hour from 4 a.m. to 10 p.m., a volunteer opened the Uber app and recorded the quoted wait time, ride time and price for each leg: Terminal 2 to each hotel, Terminal 5 to each hotel, and the Old Post Office to each hotel. That is 57 hourly readings for each terminal-and-hotel pairing, 228 in all. Walk times inside the airport were paced on foot.

Train ride: 15 minutes: The sponsors’ figure for Terminal 2 to the Old Post Office.
Wait for the train: 7½ minutes: Half the 15-minute interval the sponsors describe. A traveler who just misses a train waits 15.
Forest Park stop: 5 minutes: Slowing, stopping, boarding and getting back to speed. The sponsors have discussed a stop there but have not committed to one.
Fare: $40 a person: Assumed. No fare has been published. Any airport fee would be on top.

Hotels: the Drake and the Congress Plaza: One on the near North Side, one on Michigan Avenue in the Loop, both a typical rideshare from the Old Post Office.
Rideshare: Uber Comfort: Quoted in the app at each hour. Tip of 20 percent on the airport ride and $5 on the short ride.
Terminal 5: 15 minutes to reach the platform: Walk to the airport tram, wait, ride to Terminal 2, walk to the train. Ten minutes more than from Terminal 2.
Days: Friday, Sunday, Wednesday: October 2, 4 and 28, 2026. Friday and Sunday are O’Hare’s busiest days by FAA operations counts.

The hourly averages behind the charts

Hour	T2 → Drake		T2 → Congress Plaza		T5 → Drake		T5 → Congress Plaza
Hour	Flyer	Rideshare	Flyer	Rideshare	Flyer	Rideshare	Flyer	Rideshare
4 a.m.	54	33	48	30	61	32	56	30
5 a.m.	56	32	50	32	62	33	58	30
6 a.m.	55	49	47	40	62	45	55	38
7 a.m.	55	64	47	50	62	57	56	54
8 a.m.	56	60	53	54	63	58	61	51
9 a.m.	53	47	47	48	60	48	55	47
10 a.m.	55	49	47	45	62	50	55	41
11 a.m.	56	51	48	46	62	48	57	46
noon	58	52	49	46	64	50	57	44
1 p.m.	58	60	50	54	64	58	58	53
2 p.m.	56	68	48	59	63	70	57	61
3 p.m.	60	83	50	79	67	81	58	73
4 p.m.	60	85	50	87	66	84	58	78
5 p.m.	60	79	49	79	67	77	57	75
6 p.m.	60	73	50	72	67	74	58	70
7 p.m.	56	60	49	56	63	57	57	55
8 p.m.	56	56	51	52	63	51	59	47
9 p.m.	56	50	49	46	62	43	57	39
10 p.m.	56	44	47	40	63	39	56	36

Minutes, door to door, three-day averages.

Metra already has a plan for frequent public transit to O’Hare.

Metra’s draft plan would run trains to O’Hare every 30 minutes, all day, from Union Station. At a fraction of the cost. Chicagoland deserves a train that works for Chicagoans. Let’s fund Metra instead.

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Analysis and data collection by STOP volunteers, October 2026. Sponsors’ statements on the fifteen-minute ride, the fifteen-minute interval and the Terminal 2 station: the O’Hare Flyer announcement of August 25, 2026 and the sponsors’ September 3, 2026 presentation. Rideshare quotes from the Uber app at the hour stated. Metra: draft Systemwide Network Plan, October 2026; the plan is a draft and sets no dates.